Forecasters are increasingly confident that the October–December 2026 Deyr season will coincide with a very strong El Niño event, reinforced by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, the same combination that produced Somalia's two worst flood years on record, in 1997 and 2023. This brief examines what that forecast means in practical terms for smallholder farmers in Golweyn and the wider Lower Shabelle riverine belt, where tomatoes and sesame are key Deyr-season crops. It reviews the climate outlook, the structural vulnerabilities of the local irrigation system, the specific agronomic risks to each crop, the likely socioeconomic knock-on effects, and the preparedness measures that could meaningfully reduce losses before the rains arrive.
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Super El Niño_Lower Shabelle Region, Somalia
This research brief examines the catastrophic flood risks facing smallholder farmers in Golweyn and the Lower Shabelle riverine corridor during the October–December 2026 Deyr season. Driven by a rare convergence of a strong El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, the forecasted rains threaten critical tomato and sesame crops across an already fragile irrigation system. Author Mohamud Jibril analyzes crop-specific agronomic vulnerabilities, socioeconomic spillover risks, and essential pre-rain interventions—such as canal rehabilitation, anticipatory financing, and field-level drainage—requi