Super El Niño_Lower Shabelle Region, Somalia
This research brief examines the catastrophic flood risks facing smallholder farmers in Golweyn and the Lower Shabelle riverine corridor during the October–December 2026 Deyr season. Driven by a rare convergence of a strong El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, the forecasted rains threaten critical tomato and sesame crops across an already fragile irrigation system. Author Mohamud Jibril analyzes crop-specific agronomic vulnerabilities, socioeconomic spillover risks, and essential pre-rain interventions—such as canal rehabilitation, anticipatory financing, and field-level drainage—requi
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